Sturgeon’s Law and The Future of Reading

As youths, we often find value in reading many things word for word. But once we have enough life experience, and specific views about the nature of life, people, and reality, some of us find it helpful to increasingly skim and scan much of our nonfiction, and after a while, our fiction as well. It gets ever easier to find implausibilites and impossibilities, implicit or explicit assumptions, plot elements, characters, behaviors and other aspects of any book, especially fiction books, that we can interpret as not worth our time. If you’ve ever walked out of a theatre in the middle of a movie, or stopped reading a number of books without finishing them, you know the ever-growing value of discrimination.

As the great sci-fi author Ted Sturgeon famously said, 90% of sci-fi becomes not worth reading, at least word for word. This is called “Sturgeon’s Law” and is well worth knowing. It is better to skip or skim the poor and anachronistic stuff, so we can spend more time with the writing we think matters most, both today and for the future. Our increasing inability to suspend disbelief in many stories, as we grow up, both in fiction and in what is alleged to be, but may not be, nonfiction, is a consequence of both evidence-based thinking and accumulated life experience, a helpful consequence that we should admit to more often.

But even though all if this seems true, I think we can also recognize that much of that 90% is still worth reading in bits. I can imagine that reading difficult and flawed fiction works like Star Maker (see my post, the Necessary Noosphere for more on that book) in an AI-guided digital form, with a record of what sentences and sections others with values and world views that we admire have read and highlighted, and with a host of skimming, scanning, and summarizing tools at our disposal, would be an excellent way to keep their best parts informing us, and is a platform we can expect in the future of reading.

Kindle’s “Popular Highlights” is a nice start at showing us the best bits, but it does not allow us to subscribe to just the highlights of those colleagues and opinion leaders whose thinking and world views I particularly value. In the future, I would love to see channels like Bookpilled (see previous post) offer a link to a database of their public highlights and margin notes, allowing me to selectively read or watch what they liked, in any media, and understand why. That could also provide a bonus income stream for reviewers as well. I’m convinced that treating creators better from a monetary perspective is going to be key to the highest-reputation web platforms in coming decades. I also expect our Personal AIs will steer us toward those platforms, the way we buy local today, whenever we can.

If Amazon truly prioritized the welfare of its creator and reader communities, rather than just profits, I believe it would already offer a basic version of such community and creator micropayment features on its Kindles. In the meantime, we can envision what should come, and take steps to make it so.

I’ve also written a onesheet, Sprint Reading for Busy People, with twelve tips on how to skim read. It is very popular with audiences in my foresight training work. It will help most people to read a lot more, every week. If you download it and use it, let me know. I always appreciate feedback, and let me know how I can improve. Thanks for all you do!

Foresight — Your Hidden Superpower!

My latest talk, for the Bay Area Future Salon. 45 mins + 35 of Q&A.

This talk is a brief summary of my new book, Introduction to Foresight, Executive Edition, 2021. The talk focuses on personal and team foresight, and the importance of living schedule-first. In the Q&A, with Mark Finnern, John RobbTyler Gothelf, and others, we get into a number of key exponential trends, including the global megatrends of densification and dematerialization (D&D).

At the end of my talk below (at 37:16), I give three slides on Exponential Investing, discuss the value of Custodial (for your children) and Regular (for yourself) Roth IRAs, explain how to use them to invest like a venture capitalist does, making one big exponential investment bet each year (and different each year), and share an investment I have made in 2021, in air taxi stocks. I’m particularly optimistic about air taxis as one key to the future of cities. Right now, most investors don’t even believe they are coming. Five years from now, everyone will know they are coming, and many will see all the benefits they will bring. In my view, now is a good time to place some bets, and do a long-term hold. See my 2018 Medium article, Our Amazing Aerial Future, for more details on this emerging new industry, just one of many positive exponentials that will increasingly reshape our 21st century lives.

Let me know what you think, dear friends!

Note: This post can also be found on Medium, an easier to use platform that pays its community for writing and readership. This site is a legacy site. Please visit my Medium page for my latest posts.


John Smart is a global futurist, and a scholar of foresight process, science and technology, life sciences, and complex systems. His new book, Introduction to Foresight, 2021, is now available on Amazon.

The Transporter Test and the Three Camps of Brain Preservation

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Reanimators, Uploaders & Uncertains — Which Are You?

Find Out Where You Stand on the “Copy Problem”.

The first in a multi-author series, with Michael Cerullo, M.D., and Keith Wiley, Ph.D., on brain preservation technologies, options, and policy.

Brain preservation for the purposes of later memory recovery, and perhaps also full personality and self reanimation, is one of the strangest yet most future-important topics I’ve had the privilege to come across in my roughly 15 years as a publishing futurist. I think this technology and the options it brings will change lots of hearts and minds in the decades to come, about the nature of life, death, and what constitutes a “good life”, both for those choosing this option and for those who would not. I’m also convinced the brain preservation option will become increasingly accessible, affordable and adopted in democratic societies around the world in coming years. It’s here to stay, so we might as well think about doing it well.

Our article is here, on Medium.

Let us know what you think, thanks!